Forecast for the Next Ten Years

It really is that time of the year when it’s fun to look back the past year and imagine what the new one will bring. This time, of course, it’s slightly different as the decade changes as well as the year. You can’t fail and be wrong about things unless you make claims and predictions first. Here’s my little list of what this decade will bring, how will the world change and what’s left of the great things that the first decade of the millennium brought.

1. Google will grow to be the most profitable and influential company in the history of mankind by 2013. As it grows too powerful, by 2015 we’ll see it being split into two different companies by US Federal Trade Commission and European Commission.

2. Talking about Europe, the Euro will take over US Dollar as the world currency by 2016. Oil and minerals will be mostly traded in Euro. By then, US Dollar will have gone through a devaluation.

3. IPTV will be the standard way of watching TV by middle of the decade, having to make time to watch TV at set times will be considered quaint and will remain as a past time of the upper-classes and the elderly.

4. In 2014, things like Twitter, Facebook, Foursquare and other Internet skills will be tought to primary school pupils alongside with maths and literacy. How to write nice emails will replace the ‘what I did in the summer holidays’ writing lesson every pupil goes through every single autumn.

5. Travel. Domestic air travel will be so heavily taxed that it’s out of reach for most people. Trainline monopolies will be fixed by the end of the decade in order to encourage greener travel. Single fare on London Underground will cost £20 by 2020 but the service will still be terrible. There will also be tax breaks for companies allowing people to work from home.

6. We will still not have flying cars.

7. Mobile phone market will be dominated by Apple and Google with Nokia mostly selling handsets in developing countries. Who knew people would be fine with just one option for a phone. Of course, mobile phone is THE definitive computing platform people use in 2020. Laptops will go the way of the Dodo, or desktop computers.

8. In 2020, Microsoft will only be know for it’s gaming console, Xbox 1440 and the birthday party they had for Windows 7 when it passed Windows XP for years-in-production.

9. By the end of the decade, the Internet will not only come a commodity like water and electricity but like air, it’ll surround us and be so ubiquitous that it’ll be more or less free. Question between using cloud versus local applications becomes a non-issue as bandwidth limitation are lifted; everything is in the cloud and locally simultaneously.

Photograph by Martin Pettitt. Used under Creative Commons license.

10. Finally, two sectors that will change the world as much as broadband has changed it in the past ten year: Green technologies. This is an obvious choice, if you want to be rich in the 2020’s become an innovator or an investor in this area.

Bio-tech. In ten years, much of human body will be repairable and there will only be few things that’ll kill you. Bio tech innovations will also change the landscape for microprocessors, food production and even battery technology.

So, there we go, check back in ten years to see how right or wrong I’ve been. Or follow me on Twitter and I’ll keep you up to date. Thanks for stopping by and have a great year!

One thought on “Forecast for the Next Ten Years

  1. Jane

    Still no flying cars?! Really? I was hopeful on that one!
    Nice post Kristian, I will make a note to check back in 10 yrs!
    (I think the bio tech prediction is optimistic, it’s amazing how slow science is when it’s related to the human body, but I do hope you’re right).

    Reply

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